一年前,金店里最难卖的是按克计价的素金项链;如今,最好卖的也是它。2026年开年,国际金价一度冲上5598美元/盎司的历史高点,随后急转直下——1月30日现货黄金单日跌幅超过12%,盘中跌穿4700美元,创下四十年来最大单日跌幅;此后一路震荡下行,6月24日跌破4000美元关口,30日探至3941.6美元的阶段低点。国内足金零售价同步从年初接近1700元/克回落至1300元/克下方,半年蒸发近四百元。价格表的变化人人看得见,真正被改写的,却是消费者走进金店后问的第一句话:从"这款设计多少钱",重新变回"今天多少钱一克"。
周大福2027财年第一季度的经营数据,把这场翻转量化得很清楚。期内集团整体零售值同比增长15.1%,内地增长10.7%,港澳及海外市场大涨44.8%。拆开看更有意思:内地计价黄金首饰同店销售增长38%,定价首饰同店销售下滑1%;港澳市场计价黄金同店增幅高达63.7%,定价首饰增长13.1%。产品结构随之倾斜,内地计价黄金零售值占比从去年同期的61.5%升至67.2%,港澳升至70.1%。周生生同期零售销售值增长16%,同样观察到内地消费者优先选择计价黄金。金价上行时,人们愿意为工艺、设计与"一口价"的确定性买单;金价回落时,此前被高价压制的婚嫁与日常刚需集中释放,透明、可比重新成为最硬的卖点。
但把这理解为"高端叙事失灵"就太草率了。老铺黄金7月27日发布的正面盈利预告显示,2026年上半年含税销售业绩约227亿至233.5亿元,同比增长60%至65%;收入198亿至204.5亿元,增长60%至66%;经调整净利润约43.1亿至43.6亿元,同比增幅达83%至85%——利润增速显著跑赢营收,金价成本边际回落叠加一口价产品的稳定溢价,把毛利率继续往上推。真正被放大的是节奏问题:对比2025年同期收入251%、净利285.8%的增幅,增速明显换挡;机构测算其二季度销售额约35亿元,月均约12亿元,仅相当于今年3月水平的四成。资本市场反应更直接,公司股价近半年下跌逾五成,滚动市盈率从2025年7月一度超过50倍回落到约12倍。
行业的利润地图,其实一直在分层。要客研究院今年5月发布的《2026中国珠宝品牌奢侈品化指数报告》给出一组扎眼的数字:2025年中国珠宝市场规模达7500亿元,但头部15个奢侈品牌拿走了行业60%的利润,平均净利率接近30%;29个大众品牌只分到1%的利润,平均净利率低至1.2%。同一份榜单里,麒麟以83分、老铺黄金以81分首次跻身国际奢侈品牌阵营,前五名仍是海瑞温斯顿、格拉夫、梵克雅宝、卡地亚与蒂芙尼。另一边,商务部数据显示2025年金银珠宝零售额增长12.8%。计价金能稳住流水,却难改同质化与低毛利的宿命;钱,仍然长在两端。
当同一根足金素链在相邻两家店里报价几乎一致,胜负就被推到"看得见的部分"。今年门店改造的共同动作,是把黄金从统排玻璃柜里请出来:单件上珠宝摆台、配定向光,让工艺细节替售货员说话;老铺黄金更激进,把门店从商场三楼迁到二层甚至一层的高奢核心位,增设书房与茶室。连以走量为主的计价金柜台,也在换掉用了多年的塑料托盘——顾客可以接受价格透明,不接受体验廉价。这直接改变了采购端的算法:定价类产品需要一件一盒的仪式感与可讲述的开箱路径,计价类产品需要成本可控又不掉价的统一形象,饰品包装盒与首饰盒批发的订单,开始从"一个爆款打天下"转向"同一视觉体系、两个价位段"。骏依美包装近期接到的组合询价,正在印证这一点。
回看这半年,金价回调没有击垮金饰,只是重新分配了定价权:一端交还给克重与实时报价,另一端交给品牌、工艺与文化叙事,中间那条靠信息差与模糊工费生存的地带正在被挤压。下半年七夕、国庆与年末礼赠旺季将至,若金价趋稳,定价类产品的消费大概率回流。真正需要提前想清楚的是——当价格不再是唯一变量,你的产品凭什么被记住。
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A year ago the hardest sell in a Chinese gold shop was a plain chain priced by the gram. Today it is the easiest. Gold peaked near US$5,598 an ounce in early 2026, fell 12% in one January session — the worst day in forty years — and broke below US$4,000 by late June.
Chow Tai Fook's fiscal 2027 first quarter quantifies the flip. Group retail value rose 15.1%, the mainland 10.7%, Hong Kong, Macao and overseas 44.8%. Mainland same-store sales of gram-priced gold jumped 38% while fixed-price pieces slipped 1%. Gram-priced products now make up 67.2% of mainland retail value, against 61.5% a year earlier.
Calling this the death of the premium narrative would be lazy. Laopu Gold guided first-half revenue up 60–66% and adjusted profit up 83–85%. Yet the tempo changed: a year earlier revenue grew 251%. Second-quarter sales ran near RMB 3.5 billion, about 40% of March's pace, and the shares have halved.
The profit map has been splitting for years. Yaok Institute's 2026 index sizes China's jewellery market at RMB 750 billion, with fifteen luxury brands taking 60% of industry profit at almost 30% net margin, while twenty-nine mass brands share 1% on a 1.2% margin. Gram-priced gold defends revenue, not margin.
When identical chains carry identical prices across a mall corridor, the contest moves to what shoppers can see. Retailers are lifting gold out of long glass counters onto single-piece display stands under directed light. Laopu Gold moved stores to ground-floor luxury positions and added tea rooms; even volume counters are retiring plastic trays.
Purchasing follows. Fixed-price pieces need ceremony and a story worth unboxing; volume lines need presentation that stays affordable without looking it. The correction did not defeat gold — it redistributed pricing power, to the gram at one end and to craft and culture at the other, squeezing the murky middle.
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